Without international students and immigrants, US colleges could shrink by millions: Here's why they can't afford to lose them

For decades, U.S. colleges and universities have been engines of opportunity, not just for American students, but for the towns and communities that grow around them. Yet a looming demographic shift threatens to upend this ecosystem, and the culprit is not just declining birth rates, it’s the potential loss of immigrants and international students . A new report by the National Foundation for American Policy , paints a stark picture: without foreign-born students, American higher education could shrink dramatically, imperiling schools, jobs, and the broader economy.

A demographic cliff on the horizon
An economics professor at the University of North Florida and author of the NFAP study, tells Forbes that without immigrants, international students, and the children of immigrants, the undergraduate student population in America would be almost 5 million smaller in 2037 than in 2022, while the graduate population would drop by at least 1.1 million. That’s nearly two-thirds of today’s undergraduate population gone, and only 60% of graduate students remaining.

The issue, they explain to Forbes, is structural. Post-2007 declines in birth rates mean that the number of U.S.-born traditional college-age students will start falling sharply in 2025. With fewer American students entering higher education, the role of immigrants and international students becomes not just important, but indispensable.

The stakes for American towns and workers
The consequences are far-reaching. Falling enrollment is not just a problem for universities — it ripples outwards, threatening employment opportunities in towns that rely on colleges as economic anchors. Smaller student bodies mean fewer professors, administrators, and support staff, fewer local businesses thriving on campus spending, and ultimately, a smaller pool of college-educated workers entering the U.S. workforce.

It’s not the Ivies that face the greatest risk. Regional universities and small liberal arts colleges, particularly in rural areas already grappling with population decline, stand to suffer the most. Many of these institutions could close, leaving fewer educational opportunities for American students and destabilizing local economies.

Policy decisions now matter more than ever
The future of American higher education is now tightly entwined with immigration policy. Restrictive measures, such as those implemented under the Trump administration, which sought to reduce “dependence” on international students at universities like Columbia and set ambitious deportation goals, could accelerate enrollment declines.

With U.S.-born college enrollment projected to fall by 15% between 2025 and 2029, according to Forbes, colleges can no longer afford to view international and immigrant students as optional. They are essential lifelines, sustaining institutions, jobs, and the intellectual vibrancy that has long defined American higher education, according to Forbes.

The lesson for policymakers and educators
The NFAP analysis delivers a clear message. Without a welcoming approach to immigration, the U.S. risks losing millions of students, countless institutions, and the economic vitality they generate. In a landscape shaped by demographic decline, the future of colleges, and the communities they serve, may hinge on whether the country embraces the global talent that has always been at the heart of its higher education system.