Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri on Thursday warned that taking Russian supplies off the market could push oil prices to $130–140 per barrel, detailing the potential impact of secondary sanctions, while adding that U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats were not yet a cause for concern for India.
"I'm not worried at all. If something happens, we'll deal with it," Puri told an industry gathering, referring to Trump’s threat on Monday to impose secondary tariffs of 100% on countries that trade with Russia if Moscow fails to conclude a peace deal with Ukraine within 50 days.
Russia produces about 9 million barrels per day, or roughly 10% of global output and consumption, Puri said. Removing such large volumes would be difficult and require the world either to consume less or let prices soar, he added.
“There are two possibilities: one, the whole world consumes 10% less — which means some people won’t get heating in winter; some won’t get air conditioning in summer; some of the transport will stop flying,” Puri said.
“Or, you start buying more from the remaining 90% (suppliers). You know what that would do to prices? The prices would skyrocket,” he added.
India would quickly switch to alternative sources to meet its oil demand if any supply were cut off, Puri said, adding that the world is currently awash in oil, which is helping keep prices in check.
Oil prices will remain around $65 per barrel over the next few months, Puri said.
“We will go back to pre-Ukraine days,” said Indian Oil Chairman A.S. Sahney, responding to how the nation’s top refiner would cope with secondary tariffs on Russia. India sourced just 0.2% of its crude from Russia before the Ukraine war. That share quickly rose to around a third of India’s imports as Western buyers shunned Russian oil, making it available at a discount to Indian refiners.
Puri also said the government was taking new measures to boost exploration and production in the country. State-run ONGC and the UK’s BP have signed a preliminary agreement to drill new stratigraphic wells in India. These deepwater wells, proposed in four basins, aim to enhance geological understanding from an explorer’s perspective. The government will fund the project, while BP will provide technical assistance.
"I'm not worried at all. If something happens, we'll deal with it," Puri told an industry gathering, referring to Trump’s threat on Monday to impose secondary tariffs of 100% on countries that trade with Russia if Moscow fails to conclude a peace deal with Ukraine within 50 days.
Russia produces about 9 million barrels per day, or roughly 10% of global output and consumption, Puri said. Removing such large volumes would be difficult and require the world either to consume less or let prices soar, he added.
“There are two possibilities: one, the whole world consumes 10% less — which means some people won’t get heating in winter; some won’t get air conditioning in summer; some of the transport will stop flying,” Puri said.
“Or, you start buying more from the remaining 90% (suppliers). You know what that would do to prices? The prices would skyrocket,” he added.
India would quickly switch to alternative sources to meet its oil demand if any supply were cut off, Puri said, adding that the world is currently awash in oil, which is helping keep prices in check.
Oil prices will remain around $65 per barrel over the next few months, Puri said.
“We will go back to pre-Ukraine days,” said Indian Oil Chairman A.S. Sahney, responding to how the nation’s top refiner would cope with secondary tariffs on Russia. India sourced just 0.2% of its crude from Russia before the Ukraine war. That share quickly rose to around a third of India’s imports as Western buyers shunned Russian oil, making it available at a discount to Indian refiners.
Puri also said the government was taking new measures to boost exploration and production in the country. State-run ONGC and the UK’s BP have signed a preliminary agreement to drill new stratigraphic wells in India. These deepwater wells, proposed in four basins, aim to enhance geological understanding from an explorer’s perspective. The government will fund the project, while BP will provide technical assistance.
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